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TL;DR

• BTC is up

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• Metaplanet Raises $25M for Bitcoin Buy

• Strategy Raises Bitcoin Gain Target to $15B

• BlackRock ETF Adds $970M in Bitcoin

• Coinbase's Bitcoin Yield Fund to Launch

• CIA Deputy: Bitcoin a National Security Matter

• Bitcoin Devs Clash Over OP_RETURN Limits

• Phoenix Expands Ethiopia Mining to 132 MW

• Bitcoin Mining Exceeds Musk's 50% Green Energy Goal

• Malaysian Police Seize Bitcoin Mining Equipment

And much more!

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Bitcoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with BTC up 1.8% and ETH up by 2.1%:

Bitcoin dominance increased over the week, starting at 61.24% and reaching a high of 61.76%, before settling at 61.67%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin Market Update:

Bitcoin Eyes $100K as Institutional Inflows, Stablecoin Liquidity, and Macro Trends Align

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $97,930 on May 1, marking a ten-week high as market sentiment tilts cautiously optimistic. Despite robust institutional demand and bullish derivatives signals, traders remain wary of macroeconomic uncertainties and global trade tensions that could cap further upside momentum.

ETF Inflows and Derivatives Point to Institutional Optimism

Over the past two weeks, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.6 billion in net inflows, fueling BTC’s 5% price increase.

However, analysts warn that these flows might reflect delta-neutral strategies rather than outright bullish bets. This cautious optimism is evident in the two-month futures premium, which has remained steady between 6% and 7%—neutral territory compared to the 10 %+ premiums seen in January.

Meanwhile, BTC options suggest a growing appetite for upside risk. The 25% delta skew on one-month options is near its lowest since February 15, indicating whales and market makers are assigning greater odds to continued price appreciation. Yet, as traders avoid leverage, it highlights the market’s reluctance to fully commit, despite bullish indicators.

Macroeconomic Risks Keep Bulls in Check

Fears of a looming recession and the escalating U.S.-China tariff dispute have tempered broader market enthusiasm.

Bitcoin’s close correlation with the S&P 500 weakens its “digital gold” narrative, even as it recently overtook silver in market cap to rank as the seventh-largest global tradable asset. With gold outperforming Bitcoin by rallying from $2,680 to $3,220, some investors question BTC’s role as a hedge.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, emphasized this dual identity. “Bitcoin is both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde—acting as a store of value and a speculative asset,” he said. He noted Bitcoin’s performance depends heavily on liquidity cycles, adding that “when M2 has grown and the stock market is rallying, Bitcoin has been off to the races.”

Short Squeeze Setup and Liquidity Surge May Trigger Breakout

According to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, macro conditions are lining up for a major rally. Citing a model with 95% tracking accuracy, Peterson predicts BTC could reach $135,000 within 100 days—if the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stays below 18.

“A low VIX indicates a risk-on environment,” Peterson explained, suggesting a climate favorable for Bitcoin and other high-beta assets.

Supporting this outlook is a surge in crypto liquidity, with the stablecoin market cap hitting a record $220 billion. This influx of capital signals the end of Bitcoin’s bearish phase and strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.

Adding to the bullish narrative is the most negative funding rate of 2025 observed in BTC futures markets. This suggests a build-up of short positions, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze. With over $3 billion at risk of liquidation on the short side, a sudden spike in BTC price could catch bearish traders off guard, rapidly pushing the asset toward the $100,000 mark.

Despite conservative leverage and macroeconomic headwinds, the combination of institutional inflows, bullish derivatives signals, and abundant liquidity offers fertile ground for Bitcoin’s next leg higher. Analysts like Peterson and Timmer provide frameworks that support a near-term breakout—possibly to $100K and beyond—if current market dynamics persist.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of May 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $96,370, down 0.86% on the day. In the short term, BTC remains within a rising trend channel with strong bullish momentum, supported at $93,000 and showing no immediate resistance. Medium-term analysis shows a breakout from a falling channel, with support now established at $92,500 after achieving the $84,732 price objective. Long term, BTC maintains a bullish structure with resistance approaching at $106,000. The overall outlook is positive, though RSI above 70 suggests caution for potential pullbacks.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $93,000; Resistance at $106,000

BTC/ETH ratio has decreased:

The BTC to ETH rate has decreased over the week, exhibiting a consistent and strong downward trend, starting at 52.82 ETH on April 28 to a low of 52.44 ETH on April 29, before settling at 52.47%.

Financial News

Strategy Buys $1.4B More in BTC

MicroStrategy has added 15,355 BTC to its reserves in a $1.42 billion purchase, executed at an average price of $92,737 per Bitcoin. This brings the firm’s total holdings to 553,555 BTC, now valued at over $52 billion with BTC trading near $95,000. The acquisition was financed through proceeds from common and preferred stock offerings.

MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin investment now stands at $37.9 billion, with an average entry price of $68,459. Up 13.7% year-to-date on its BTC position, the company remains the most aggressive corporate accumulator of Bitcoin, signaling deep, continued institutional conviction in crypto’s flagship asset.

Metaplanet Raises $25M for Bitcoin Buy

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has issued $24.7 million in zero-interest bonds through its EVO FUND to accelerate its bitcoin acquisition strategy. This move marks the company’s 12th bond issuance since embracing a Bitcoin standard in April 2024.

With 5,000 BTC now held—halfway to its 10,000 BTC goal—Metaplanet also revealed plans to launch a U.S. subsidiary in Miami to boost institutional access and raise an additional $250 million. CEO Simon Gerovich highlighted that unrealized bitcoin gains now exceed 6 billion yen, over four times the firm’s pre-Bitcoin market cap. Metaplanet shares rose 10.4% following the announcement.

Strategy Raises Bitcoin Gain Target to $15B

Strategy (MSTR) missed Q1 earnings estimates, reporting a $4.2 billion net loss and $6 billion in operating expenses, driven largely by $5.91 billion in unrealized bitcoin losses. The firm purchased 80,715 BTC last quarter, bringing its total to 553,555 BTC, worth around $52 billion.

Despite revenue falling to $111.1 million, Strategy increased its 2025 bitcoin dollar gain target from $10 billion to $15 billion. A new $21 billion at-the-market offering is planned. Chairman Michael Saylor reaffirmed the firm’s BTC strategy, saying, “We’ll just keep buying,” as the company deepens its commitment to bitcoin securitization.

BlackRock ETF Adds $970M in Bitcoin

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF added $970 million in BTC on April 28, marking its second-largest daily inflow since launch. The surge helped total weekly inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceed $3 billion, bolstering Bitcoin’s recent rally above $94,000. IBIT now manages over $54 billion, dominating 51% of the spot BTC ETF market.

Analysts say these inflows are providing structural support for price appreciation amid lagging retail interest. The ETF is now ranked the 33rd-largest globally, underscoring institutional momentum as a key force driving Bitcoin’s current uptrend.

Entertainment Firm Secures Rights to $800M Bitcoin Story

Lebul, an entertainment media firm, has acquired exclusive rights to develop and produce the story of James Howells, the man behind the $800 million Bitcoin fortune lost in a Welsh landfill since 2013. The project will include a docuseries titled "The Buried Bitcoin," a podcast, and social-first content.

The narrative will follow Howells’ attempt to recover the hard drive containing 8,000 BTC, blending global stakes, blockchain technology, and environmental issues. Lebul aims to deliver a media campaign highlighting the cultural impact and future implications of this real-life treasure hunt.

Adoption News

El Salvador Bitcoin Buys Go Off-Record

El Salvador has paused official Bitcoin purchases under its $1.4 billion IMF agreement, which requires the government to halt BTC accumulation using public funds. Despite this, on-chain data shows the country’s Bitcoin holdings quietly increasing, now at 6,160 BTC—up from 6,055 in February.

Daily BTC movements continue, but recent transfers suggest internal wallet reshuffling rather than fresh market buys. The IMF’s focus remains on fiscal and governance reforms, not Bitcoin policy. Still, El Salvador appears committed to growing its Bitcoin reserves indirectly, maintaining its long-term crypto strategy while staying compliant with IMF conditions for economic reform.

Coinbase's Bitcoin Yield Fund to Launch

Coinbase Asset Management is launching the Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF) on May 1, 2025, offering institutional investors the opportunity to earn 4% to 8% annual returns in Bitcoin. The fund employs a conservative cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy, leveraging price differences between Bitcoin’s spot price and perpetual futures.

Exclusively available to non-U.S. institutions, CBYF avoids high-risk tactics such as high-interest lending. Coinbase ensures third-party custody for added security and compliance, aiming to provide a safer, more accessible way for large investors to participate in Bitcoin’s growth.

Bitcoin Could Hit $1M by 2029

Bitcoin's institutional adoption, fueled by ETF growth and government demand, could propel its price to $1 million by 2029, says Bitwise’s André Dragosch. He estimates Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by 2025 in a base scenario, with potential for $500,000 if the U.S. government makes direct Bitcoin acquisitions.

ETFs have already exceeded expectations, setting the stage for prolonged price growth as they attract significant institutional capital. With further support from U.S. wirehouses controlling $10 trillion in assets, Bitcoin's market capitalization could rival gold's by 2029, driving its value beyond $1 million.

CIA Deputy: Bitcoin a National Security Matter

Michael Ellis, Deputy Director of the CIA, has emphasized that Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into U.S. national security operations, highlighting its role in counter-intelligence and tracking activities. Ellis acknowledged Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset, with more institutions adopting it, noting its significance in global competition, particularly with China.

His remarks reflect a growing government interest in cryptocurrencies, diverging from the original cypherpunk philosophy. The U.S. government's involvement with Bitcoin signals its potential as a strategic asset, despite concerns within the crypto community about the loss of Bitcoin’s libertarian ethos.

Bitcoin Devs Clash Over OP_RETURN Limits

Bitcoin developers are locked in a heated debate over a proposal to remove the 83-byte limit on OP_RETURN, a function used to store data in transactions. Spearheaded by Peter Todd, the change aims to streamline data usage and reduce UTXO bloat, but critics fear it could flood the network with spam.

Voices like Luke Dashjr and Ocean Mining’s Jason Hughes warn of higher fees and mission drift. Supporters argue it modernizes Bitcoin, while skeptics raise concerns about censorship, developer centralization, and echoes of the 2017 Bitcoin Cash fork. The proposal has reignited a core debate: what should Bitcoin be?

Mining News

Phoenix Expands Ethiopia Mining to 132 MW

Phoenix Group has increased its Bitcoin mining capacity in Ethiopia by 52 MW, reaching a total of 132 MW in the region and surpassing 500 MW globally. The new site will be developed in two phases, aiming for a combined hashrate of 2.4 exahashes per second.

Powered by clean hydropower, the expansion highlights Phoenix's commitment to sustainable, large-scale mining. The company, publicly listed in Abu Dhabi, is also partnered with Tether on a UAE dirham-pegged stablecoin. Phoenix continues to solidify its presence in energy-rich regions by leveraging low-cost renewable energy for Bitcoin mining growth.

Riot Platforms Posts Net Loss Despite Revenue Surge

Riot Platforms reported a 103.5% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $161.4 million in Q1 2025, driven by increased bitcoin mining revenue. However, the company incurred a net loss of $296.4 million, a sharp contrast to the $211.8 million profit from the same period in 2024.

Riot continues its pivot to AI and high-performance computing, with a focus on its Corsicana facility. Despite the loss, Riot’s stock rose by 7.32%, though it fell in after-hours trading. The company’s shift towards AI, along with its growing mining output, remains central to its strategy moving forward.

Bitcoin Mining Exceeds Musk's 50% Green Energy Goal

A recent Cambridge University study revealed that Bitcoin mining's sustainable energy usage has reached 52.4%, surpassing Elon Musk's 50% threshold for Tesla to resume Bitcoin payments. The study also highlighted a shift from coal to natural gas and significant improvements in energy efficiency.

Despite the growth in sustainable energy, Tesla has yet to reinstate Bitcoin as a payment method. The report further emphasizes Bitcoin mining’s role in supporting flexible grid loads and the need for ongoing research to address environmental concerns and improve the industry’s sustainability.

Kuwait Cracks Down on Bitcoin Miners

Kuwait has intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency miners, citing the strain on the nation’s power grid. The government is targeting homes in Al-Wafrah converted into mining operations, which consume up to 20 times the electricity of a typical household. With summer heat intensifying, the government aims to avoid blackouts.

Although cryptocurrency trading is banned in Kuwait, the absence of mining regulations has allowed miners to exploit cheap electricity. Early reports show a 55% reduction in energy usage following the operation. Authorities continue to urge citizens to limit power consumption in preparation for the summer.

Malaysian Police Seize Bitcoin Mining Equipment

Malaysian authorities have raided an illegal Bitcoin mining operation in the Hulu Terengganu and Marang districts, seizing 45 mining machines worth $52,145. The operation was causing monthly electricity losses of around $8,342 for Tenaga Nasional, Malaysia’s electricity provider.

Illegal Bitcoin mining continues to be a growing problem in Southeast Asia, with Malaysia losing approximately $722 million to electricity theft from such activities between 2018 and 2023. Police collaborated with Tenaga Nasional’s Special Engagement Against Losses (SEAL) unit for the crackdown, though no arrests were made during the operation.

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