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  • Saylor's Strategy Faces $6B BTC Hit | Newsletter Bitcoin Week 15 of 2025

Saylor's Strategy Faces $6B BTC Hit | Newsletter Bitcoin Week 15 of 2025

The Bitcoin Newsletter to keep you updated on all things Bitcoin

April 18, 2025

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TL;DR

  • BTC is down

  • Bitcoin dominance is up

  • Saylor's Strategy Faces $6B BTC Hit

  • US Fed ready to act if liquidity dries up

  • BlackRock sees $3B in digital asset inflows

  • Ross Ulbricht to Speak at Bitcoin 2025

  • Russia and China Trade Energy with Bitcoin

  • Pierre Rochard Launches Bitcoin Bond Company

  • Quantum Threat Spurs Bitcoin Hard Fork Proposal

  • Arizona Bitcoin Mining Bill Moves Forward

  • Pakistan Explores Bitcoin Mining with Surplus Power

And much more!

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Bitcoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down 0.9% and ETH down by 14.3%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 59.79% to a high of 60.74% and ending at 60.7%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

BTC Enters ‘Up Only’ Territory Amid Bond Market Chaos and Trader Accumulation

Bitcoin is positioning itself for a significant breakout as macroeconomic volatility in the United States and renewed on-chain accumulation drive bullish sentiment across the crypto landscape. Over the past week, BTC has gained nearly 10%, surging past $83,000 and signaling what BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes referred to as the beginning of “up only mode.”

The trigger behind this bullish tone is a deteriorating U.S. bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking above 4.59%, marking its highest level in two months. According to Hayes, this sharp sell-off — the worst since 2019 — may force the Federal Reserve to intervene.

On X, he stated, “We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC.” Hayes anticipates that continued macroeconomic stress, particularly from rate volatility and declining confidence in U.S. policy, could drive capital into Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

The weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which recently slipped below 100 for the first time since 2022, adds to this momentum. Crypto analyst Venturefounder emphasized that historic drops in DXY have often preceded “delayed but powerful Bitcoin bull runs,” potentially replicating conditions from previous market cycles. He added that a further decline in the DXY toward the 90 level could push Bitcoin into a parabolic advance, extending for months.

From a technical perspective, BTC is also supported by multiple bullish signals. Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger noted that Bitcoin is forming a “classic” bottom near the $80,000 mark, while chart patterns point to a potential rally toward $100,000, particularly with a maturing falling wedge structure.

On-chain fundamentals align with this optimistic narrative. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Cap surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024.

This indicator reflects the cost basis of investors holding BTC for over 155 days, typically regarded as a strong measure of smart money activity. Aggressive accumulation by this cohort previously marked a local bottom in Q3 2024, before BTC doubled in value.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% from mid-December to early April, resembling the leverage reset that occurred ahead of the previous bull leg. While OI has rebounded nearly 10% over the past 24 hours, it suggests fresh participation in what could be the start of a renewed uptrend.

Support levels have also become more clearly defined. Glassnode data shows significant accumulation around $79,000 and a secondary cluster at $82,080, where tens of thousands of BTC changed hands.

These zones are now acting as firm support during short-term pullbacks. Technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller highlighted Bitcoin’s current test of a descending trendline, noting it as a “very enticing” breakout setup.

In summary, a confluence of macroeconomic instability, favorable on-chain metrics, and technical setups has propelled Bitcoin into a strong position. With traders now pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts by year-end and dollar weakness accelerating, the stage appears set for BTC to continue its upward trajectory.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of April 12, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $82,959. In the short term, BTC remains within a falling trend channel, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $84,000. A decisive breakout could dictate the next move. Medium-term indicators remain bearish following a completed double top pattern, with support at $70,000 and resistance at $92,500. Long-term signals are cautiously optimistic, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000, suggesting the potential for renewed upward momentum.

Expected Trading Ranges:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $84,000

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from equities and gold signals growing investor interest amid macro uncertainty. Despite Trump’s tariff war and Powell’s inflation warning, BTC holds above $83K. A break above $85K could trigger momentum toward $100K. Short-term volatility remains, but sentiment is turning bullish as capital rotates from traditional assets into crypto.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH rate has shown a consistent and strong upward trend, rising from 46.31 ETH on April 5 to 53.24 ETH on April 11. This marks an overall increase of approximately 14.96%, driven by multiple consecutive daily gains, including a notable 5.02% jump on April 10 and 6.95% on April 6. Despite a minor dip on April 9, the general movement has been decisively upward.

“They don’t understand, Bitcoin can go to zero and we’re still buying.”

Financial News

Bitwise has reaffirmed its $200K Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, despite growing global trade tensions. Matt Hougan, the firm’s chief investment officer, pointed to a historical correlation between a weakening U.S. dollar and Bitcoin’s strength.

Hougan suggests that the ongoing trade disruptions under President Trump’s administration could accelerate Bitcoin’s growth, as dollar weakness creates opportunities for alternative assets. He also predicts a shift toward a more fractured global reserve system, with Bitcoin and gold gaining prominence. This follows news of Russia and China reportedly settling energy trades in Bitcoin.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, disclosed $5.91 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses for Q1 2025 after purchasing 80,715 BTC at an average price of $94,922. The firm has paused new acquisitions in Q2, keeping its total holdings at 528,185 BTC, roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s supply, valued at over $43 billion.

The halt follows lackluster demand for its equity offerings and Bitcoin’s 11.82% drop, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2018. Broader market turmoil driven by geopolitical tariffs also dragged MSTR shares down 8%, compounding the firm’s unrealized losses and signaling investor caution amid ongoing macroeconomic volatility.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated the Federal Reserve is “absolutely” prepared to intervene if market liquidity deteriorates. While no current concerns exist, Collins, a 2025 FOMC voting member, highlighted the Fed’s tools to stabilize financial conditions. Her remarks follow recent asset selloffs and coincide with the Fed’s move to ease quantitative tightening.

Historically, monetary liquidity directly influences Bitcoin, with studies showing it accounts for over 65% of BTC’s price movements post-pandemic. Analysts like Lyn Alden affirm Bitcoin often mirrors global liquidity trends, reinforcing expectations of a BTC recovery if liquidity expands in Q2.

BlackRock reported $3 billion in digital asset inflows during Q1 2025, accounting for nearly 3% of the total ETF inflows. Despite this, digital assets represent only a small fraction of its business, contributing just $34 million in base fees, less than 1% of long-term revenue.

By the end of Q1, the firm managed $50.3 billion in digital assets, roughly 0.5% of its total assets under management. While overall net inflows decreased by 70% from the previous quarter, BlackRock emphasized strong base fee growth, signaling its continued focus on long-term client goals.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reported $150 million in net outflows on April 10, marking the sixth consecutive day of negative flows. The ongoing tariff war, particularly between the U.S. and China, has prompted investors to move away from risk assets like bitcoin, seeking safer havens such as gold and foreign currencies.

Grayscale's GBTC and Fidelity's FBTC were hit the hardest, with $74.6 million and $44.6 million in outflows, respectively. This follows a volatile period in the markets, exacerbated by President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies and market uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate decision.

Adoption News

Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road and long-time symbol of the “Free Ross” movement, will speak at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas. This will be his first public appearance as a free man. Pardoned by former President Trump on January 21, 2025, Ulbricht’s release ends a decade-long campaign against his double life sentence.

His return marks a major moment for the Bitcoin community, which has long viewed him as a pioneer and freedom advocate. Ulbricht’s presence is expected to energize the event and reinforce Bitcoin’s core ideals of liberty and decentralization.

A new bill in New York, Assembly Bill A7788, seeks to authorize state agencies to accept Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash for payments including taxes, fines, and fees. Introduced by Assemblyman Clyde Vanel, the bill reflects a rising trend in state-level crypto legislation amid national momentum under the Trump administration.

If passed, it would allow the state to charge a service fee to cover transaction-related costs. This is New York’s second major crypto legislative effort in recent weeks, signaling growing institutional interest in integrating digital assets into the public financial system.

Russia and China have reportedly begun settling energy transactions using Bitcoin, signaling a major shift away from the U.S. dollar. This move, highlighted by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, is part of a broader effort by countries to reduce reliance on U.S. financial systems.

Cryptocurrency attorney Sasha Hodder emphasized that this development could mark the beginning of the end for the dollar’s dominance in global trade. Additionally, countries like Bolivia and France are exploring similar initiatives, further advancing Bitcoin’s role as a functional monetary tool and potentially undermining the dollar's global reserve status.

New Hampshire and Florida pushed forward bitcoin reserve bills this week, signaling a growing trend in U.S. states exploring BTC for public finance. New Hampshire’s HB302 passed the House, while Florida’s HB487 cleared its first committee with bipartisan support.

Both bills would allow state funds to invest in bitcoin, the only digital asset meeting their $500B market cap requirement. Custody rules ensure security, and options include direct holding or regulated products. Arizona and Texas are also advancing similar legislation, reflecting increasing state-level adoption and institutional interest in bitcoin-backed assets.

Pierre Rochard, former Riot VP and longtime Bitcoin advocate, has launched The Bitcoin Bond Company to bring bitcoin into fixed-income markets. The firm plans to acquire $1 trillion in bitcoin over 21 years by offering structured financial products backed by BTC.

These bonds aim to appeal to institutional credit investors seeking exposure without the complexities of custody. Rochard believes bitcoin-backed bonds will unlock sidelined capital and serve as a bridge between risk-averse allocators and crypto speculators. He views bitcoin as a macro asset and sees education and regulation as key to the next phase of adoption.

Mining News

A controversial new proposal called QRAMP could trigger a Bitcoin hard fork to protect the network from future quantum attacks. Proposed by developer Agustin Cruz, QRAMP would require users to migrate their coins to quantum-resistant addresses before a set deadline. Coins left unmoved would become unspendable, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s total supply.

Critics argue the plan violates Bitcoin’s core principles, especially with dormant wallets like Satoshi Nakamoto’s at risk. While still a draft, the proposal reflects growing urgency as quantum computing advances, especially after Microsoft’s recent progress on scalable quantum chips. The debate highlights Bitcoin’s evolving threat landscape.

Bitcoin’s hashrate has reached a record 1.1 Zettahashes per second, marking a 1,000x increase since 2016. This surge in network security comes despite a nearly 30% drop in price from January highs of $109,000 to as low as $74,460. The milestone underscores miners’ long-term commitment, with major players deploying next-gen machines like Bitmain’s S21 and MicroBT’s M60.

Analysts note that cleaner energy sources and infrastructure expansion continue, while weaker miners face pressure. The divergence between hashrate growth and market price highlights miner confidence amid broader economic uncertainty and growing concerns around global recession triggers.

The Trump administration's global reciprocal tariffs could lead to a drop in Bitcoin mining rig prices outside the U.S., according to Hashlabs Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud. As U.S. demand for mining rigs declines, manufacturers may lower prices to sell surplus inventory in non-U.S. markets.

This price reduction could spur growth in established mining regions like Russia and Ethiopia, as well as new energy-rich areas in the Southern Hemisphere. Mellerud cautioned that even if tariffs are rolled back, the uncertainty caused by unpredictable policies could undermine U.S. miners' long-term confidence.

Arizona’s legislature has passed HB 2342, a bill aimed at shielding Bitcoin miners and blockchain node operators from local zoning restrictions. The bill, which passed the Senate with a 17-12 vote, now heads to Governor Katie Hobbs for approval.

It classifies the use of computational power, including mining and running blockchain nodes, as a "statewide concern," preventing local governments from regulating it. This move is part of Arizona's broader efforts to promote crypto adoption, with other initiatives like the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act also advancing.

Pakistan is looking to leverage its surplus electricity for Bitcoin mining and AI data centers, addressing energy inefficiencies while exploring new revenue streams. Spearheaded by Bilal Bin Saqib, advisor to the finance minister, the initiative is part of broader efforts to boost the country’s digital asset sector.

Preliminary talks with mining firms are underway, focusing on regions with excess power. This move aligns with Pakistan’s goal to establish itself as a blockchain leader, aided by strategic partnerships like Binance founder Changpeng Zhao's role in advising the Pakistan Crypto Council.

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