Newsletter Bitcoin Week 8 of 2025

The Bitcoin Newsletter to keep you updated on all things Bitcoin

February 28, 2025

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TL;DR

  • BTC is down

  • Bitcoin dominance is up

  • Bitcoin Manipulated? Samson Mow Weighs In

  • Saylor Urges U.S. to Buy 20% of Bitcoin Supply

  • BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Hits 50% Market Share Amid Sell-Off

  • Montana Advances Bitcoin Reserve Bill to House

  • New Theory Links Jack Dorsey to Bitcoin’s Origins

  • Altvest Capital Becomes Africa’s First Bitcoin Treasury Adopter

  • Russia’s Bitcoin Mining Ban Eases Siberia’s Power Strain

  • US Bitcoin Miners Shift to AI and HPC for Stability

  • Rosseti Suffers $14.2M Loss from Illegal Crypto Mining

And much more!

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Bitcoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 1.1% and ETH down by 2.1%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 57.4% to a high of 58.25% and ending at 58.0%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a recovery, briefly touching $99,500 on Feb. 21 before facing resistance. While market sentiment remains mixed, analysts suggest a weekly close above $97,000 could set the stage for an all-time high (ATH) push.

Bitcoin’s recent price movement reflects a rebound from its Feb. 18 low of $95,000, marking a 6% increase. Despite this, the derivatives market signals a lack of bullish conviction.

The Bitcoin futures premium, a key indicator of market sentiment, has remained subdued since the rejection at $102,000 on Feb. 3. Typically, a premium between 5% and 10% indicates a neutral market, yet the recent price jump to $99,500 has failed to ignite a sustained bullish trend.

Source: Laevitas.ch

A notable factor contributing to Bitcoin’s brief surge was China’s revised M1 monetary supply data. Investors initially perceived this as an expansionary move, fueling optimism. However, the methodology behind the data was later clarified to include individual checking accounts and holdings in non-bank platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Despite record-breaking credit growth, with new loans reaching $702 billion in January—the highest since 1992—Bitcoin traders remained cautious. Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale, noted that policymakers appear to be stimulating the economy.

Technical analysts emphasize the importance of Bitcoin maintaining key support levels. Trader Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC must close above $97,000 weekly to confirm its higher low support, a critical factor for maintaining bullish momentum.

An accompanying chart shows Bitcoin sitting on immediate support at $97,028, within a triangular market structure. Should Bitcoin hold this level, it could sustain its upward trajectory.

Fellow analyst Warren Muppet pointed out Bitcoin’s trading above $98,000 for the first time since Feb. 4. He noted that a confirmed daily close above this level could trigger a rally toward ATH levels. Conversely, a rejection at $98,000 would signal a potential short opportunity.

The options market echoes the subdued enthusiasm seen in futures. The 25% delta skew indicator, which gauges demand for put (sell) options relative to calls (buy), remains within a neutral range at 5%. The last significant bullish sentiment was observed on Jan. 26, when Bitcoin approached $105,000.

In the stablecoin market, USDT’s premium in China remains at 0.5%, indicating a lack of heightened demand. Typically, a premium above 2% signals strong cryptocurrency interest, but traders appear unmoved by recent price movements.

Source: OKX

On the regulatory front, positive news emerged as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced it would drop charges against Coinbase, improving sentiment around institutional adoption.

Additionally, Howard Lutnick, former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and a vocal Bitcoin advocate, was confirmed as the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, bolstering hopes for a more favorable crypto policy.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of February 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $98,244, up 1.13% on the day. The short-term outlook is neutral, with support at $95,200 and resistance at $101,600. A break above $101,600 could signal further upside toward $104,810, while a drop below $95,200 may indicate weakness. The medium-term trend remains positive, with Bitcoin trading within a horizontal range between $93,098 and $104,810. In the long term, BTC is in a strong uptrend, with no visible resistance and solid support at $72,000, suggesting continued bullish momentum.

Expected Trading Ranges:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $95,200; Resistance at $101,600

Market Outlook:

Outlook: Can Bitcoin Push Higher? While Bitcoin’s momentum remains fragile, key support levels at $97,500 and $96,450, identified by Glassnode data, suggest a strong base for further gains. If Bitcoin sustains a weekly close above $97,000, analysts believe an attack on the ATH is likely. Breaking the $100,000 psychological barrier would be a major confirmation for a bullish continuation.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen a decrease:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has shown a general downward trend, decreasing from 36.14 ETH on Feb 16 to 35.92 ETH on Feb 22. While there was a brief increase on Feb 18 (35.85 ETH, +2.56%), the overall movement has been negative, with notable drops on Feb 17 (-3.29%) and Feb 19 (-0.72%). The rate has declined by 0.65% in the last 24 hours, confirming a weakening trend of Bitcoin against Ethereum over the past week.

“When you self custody bitcoin, you strengthen the network. When trusted third parties hold your bitcoin, you weaken it”

Financial News

Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound between $92,400 and $106,500 despite significant institutional inflows, raising concerns about market manipulation. Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, suggests the price action appears “manufactured,” pointing to consistent sideways movement even as institutions and retail investors accumulate BTC.

He highlights ongoing selling pressure, potentially linked to FTX’s creditor repayments at 2022 price levels, which could be preventing an upward breakout. While Bitcoin remains stagnant, analysts remain optimistic, with 2025 price projections ranging from $160,000 to $180,000, anticipating a potential rally once selling pressure eases and market fundamentals take full effect.

MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor is advocating for the U.S. government to acquire 20% of Bitcoin’s supply, claiming it could strengthen the dollar and eliminate national debt. Speaking at CPAC, he warned that other nations might seize the opportunity first.

His remarks come as some U.S. states push for Bitcoin reserves and President Trump explores a federal Bitcoin strategy. However, skeptics, including MIT’s Christian Catalini and author David Gerard, argue that Bitcoin lacks the stability of a true reserve asset and could undermine the dollar’s global status, casting doubt on the feasibility of Saylor’s proposal.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has surpassed 50% market share, holding over $56.8 billion in BTC despite a three-day sell-off. Bitcoin ETFs saw $364 million in net outflows on Feb. 20, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for $112 million. Bitcoin remains resilient, recovering above $99,300, suggesting other market forces like institutional accumulation and macro trends are at play.

Some experts believe Bitcoin’s price is being artificially suppressed, with its range-bound movement appearing unnatural. Despite concerns, ETFs have driven Bitcoin’s 2024 rally, contributing 75% of new investment as the asset reclaimed $50,000 on Feb. 15.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) faced their first major outflows of 2025, with $415 million exiting the market last week. Bitcoin ETPs led the sell-off, losing $430 million, driven by macroeconomic concerns and Federal Reserve rate expectations, according to CoinShares. Despite Bitcoin’s decline, altcoin ETPs saw inflows, with Solana attracting $8.9 million, XRP $8.5 million, and Sui $6 million.

Optimism over potential Solana and XRP ETF approvals by the SEC in 2025 contributed to investor interest. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 75% approval chance for a Solana ETF and 65% for an XRP ETF this year.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, announced a $2 billion convertible senior notes offering with 0% interest, aiming to fund further Bitcoin acquisitions. The move follows a profitability warning due to a $1.79 billion impairment loss on its Bitcoin holdings. The notes, maturing in 2030, can be settled in cash or stock.

Strategy, which acquired 258,320 BTC in 2024, now holds 478,740 BTC, valued at over $46 billion. The firm warned that future profitability remains uncertain, especially if Bitcoin’s market value declines, potentially impacting its financial obligations.

Adoption News

Montana’s House Business and Labor Committee has approved House Bill No. 429, allowing Bitcoin and other digital assets to become reserve assets. Passed in a 12-8 vote, with Republican support, the bill would establish a special revenue account for investing in precious metals, stablecoins, and digital assets with a $750 billion market cap—currently, only Bitcoin qualifies.

If enacted, Montana’s state treasurer could allocate up to $50 million by July 15. Montana joins Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma in advancing similar legislation, while federal efforts continue through Senator Cynthia Lummis' Bitcoin reserve bill proposal.

A new theory by Seán Murray suggests Jack Dorsey could be Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Murray points to several coincidences, such as Bitcoin’s first transaction occurring on Dorsey’s mother’s birthday and Satoshi’s last mined block aligning with his father’s birthday. Other clues include timestamps, addresses, and alleged online activity linked to Dorsey’s past.

However, skeptics argue that no definitive proof exists. Critics also question whether Dorsey, who led Twitter’s content moderation, would align with Bitcoin’s uncensorable ethos. Despite previous denials, Dorsey has yet to respond to these latest claims, leaving the mystery of Satoshi’s identity unresolved.

Howard Lutnick, former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and a vocal Bitcoin advocate, has been confirmed as the US Secretary of Commerce in a 51-45 Senate vote. Lutnick has long supported Bitcoin and stablecoins, advocating for their global acceptance and clearer regulations.

Under his leadership, Cantor Fitzgerald managed Tether’s US Treasury reserves and launched a $2 billion Bitcoin financing program. Beyond crypto, Lutnick backs Trump’s trade policies, including tariffs on imports. While Bitcoiners celebrate his appointment, some economists warn about potential trade tensions. His tenure will influence US economic policy and digital asset regulations significantly.

Altvest Capital has become the first publicly listed African company to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset, purchasing one BTC with plans to expand holdings. CEO Warren Wheatley emphasized Bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralization as key factors in its investment appeal. To bolster reserves, Altvest is seeking regulatory approval to raise $10 million through a stock sale.

The firm rejects altcoins due to inflationary risks and regulatory concerns. This move could inspire other African companies, particularly in Rwanda and Kenya, to explore Bitcoin for treasury management, accelerating corporate adoption of digital assets across the continent.

Franklin Templeton has launched the Franklin Crypto Index ETF (EZPZ), becoming the second crypto index ETF in the U.S. after Hashdex’s Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF (NCIQ). EZPZ, tracking the CF Institutional Digital Asset Index, currently holds 87% Bitcoin and 13% Ether, with plans to expand as regulations allow.

The ETF offers investors exposure to crypto without direct purchases. U.S. regulators are increasingly approving crypto ETFs, following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. With asset managers filing for ETFs including Solana and XRP, Bloomberg Intelligence sees high approval odds for broader crypto ETF offerings in the near future.

Mining News

Russia’s ban on Bitcoin mining has reduced the load on Siberia’s power grid by over 300 MW, preventing potential blackouts in the region. The Ministry of Energy emphasized that the measures have helped preserve the outdated infrastructure, particularly during peak winter demand.

Authorities are also considering a registry for crypto mining equipment to monitor its impact on the grid. Restrictions vary across 13 regions, with Siberian areas facing limitations during peak usage from November to March. Officials stress that energy must prioritize social facilities and essential industries over crypto mining.

US Bitcoin miners are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) amid uncertain transaction fee revenues, according to VanEck. As block rewards halve, miners are diversifying revenue streams by leveraging power infrastructure for AI and HPC workloads.

Companies like Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, and Iris Energy are expanding AI/HPC capabilities, with total mining capacity expected to reach 20.4 GW by 2027. With AI power demand projected to grow, miners are allocating up to 30% of capacity to AI and HPC, securing long-term sustainability in a shifting market.

Russian energy giant Rosseti lost 1.3 billion rubles ($14.2 million) in 2024 due to unauthorized crypto mining, with 130 illegal grid connections uncovered. The North Caucasus Grid accounted for nearly half the losses, while Novosibirsk authorities seized 3,200 mining devices. Over 40 criminal cases have been initiated.

Rosseti warns that illegal mining strains the grid and damages infrastructure. Meanwhile, the company is exploring legal Bitcoin mining projects to utilize surplus energy, aligning with Russia’s evolving regulatory landscape amid rising demand for mining equipment.

Bitcoin mining revenue remained stable at $1.4 billion in January, but public miners saw their market share drop from 35% to 30% amid operational cutbacks. The network hashrate hit 780 EH/s, though growth slowed due to U.S. hardware import restrictions.

Only Iris Energy, Riot Platforms, and Canaan expanded their hashrate, while MARA led with 41.65 EH/s. Public miners’ Bitcoin holdings rose to 99,000 BTC, though Cipher Mining and HIVE Digital sold reserves for capital needs. A 1.2% difficulty decrease is expected on February 23.

Singapore-based mining rig manufacturer Bgin Blockchain has filed for a $50 million U.S. IPO, aiming to list its Class A shares on Nasdaq under the ticker “BGIN.” Founded in 2019, the firm specializes in alternative cryptocurrencies like Kaspa and Alephium, selling nearly 68,000 rigs in 2023.

The company plans to use the funds to expand research and development. Bgin joins a growing wave of crypto firms eyeing public listings, including eToro, BitGo, and Gemini, amid renewed industry optimism following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, potentially signaling a broader trend of crypto companies seeking capital through public markets.

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