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  • Bitcoin Crash? 3 Red Flags to Watch | Newsletter Bitcoin Week 12 of 2025

Bitcoin Crash? 3 Red Flags to Watch | Newsletter Bitcoin Week 12 of 2025

The Bitcoin Newsletter to keep you updated on all things Bitcoin

March 28, 2025

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TL;DR

  • BTC is down

  • Bitcoin dominance is down

  • Bitcoin Crash? 3 Red Flags to Watch

  • Bitcoin Reaches 1.3% of Global Money Supply

  • White House: Trump’s Bitcoin Bet Could Shake Markets

  • Xapo Bank Launches Bitcoin-Backed Loans

  • Brazil Moves to Allow Bitcoin Salary Payments

  • Eric Trump Joins Metaplanet to Boost Bitcoin Adoption

  • Hive Expands BTC Holdings Amid Mining Challenges

  • SEC Confirms PoW Mining Isn’t Securities Dealing

  • Pakistan Explores Bitcoin Mining to Utilize Surplus Energy

And much more!

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Bitcoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 0.3% and ETH up by 3.4%:

Bitcoin dominance has decreased over the week, starting from 58.81% to a low of 57.98% and ending at 58.36%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to regain its bullish momentum after rebounding 14% from a four-month low of $76,600 on March 11.

Despite briefly touching $87,000 on March 20, BTC has since dropped to around $84,000, raising concerns among traders about the possibility of further declines. Analysts point to key technical patterns and bearish indicators that suggest Bitcoin could fall as low as $65,000 in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin's price action has formed concerning bearish patterns, with multiple analysts highlighting signals of continued downward movement. GDXTrader noted that Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after failing to break above $87,470, a key resistance level within a descending channel.

Additionally, a "dark cloud cover" pattern—where a strong green candle is followed by a red candle closing below its midpoint—has reinforced the bearish sentiment. According to GDXTrader, Bitcoin remains under pressure unless it decisively breaks above the $90,000-$93,000 resistance zone.

Trader CrediBULL Crypto also identified Bitcoin's rejection in the $86,000-$88,000 range as a "perfect rejection," signaling a high probability of further declines. BTC has failed to reclaim this key supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a drop toward $77,000-$79,000. If this support breaks, Bitcoin could extend its losses to the $65,000-$74,000 range by April.

Analysts have also highlighted Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which are displaying bear flag patterns. CryptOpus pointed out that Bitcoin itself is trading within a bear flag, where an ascending parallel channel follows a sharp decline. The lower boundary of this flag sits at $84,000, and a break below this level could trigger a sell-off toward $72,000.

From a longer-term perspective, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has plummeted to its lowest level since January 2023, signaling deteriorating investor sentiment. The index, which measures bullish metrics out of ten key indicators, has dropped to 20, well below the 60 threshold associated with strong rallies. Historically, values below 40 have indicated prolonged bear markets, suggesting a weak investment environment for Bitcoin.

Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has echoed these bearish sentiments, stating that the Bitcoin bull cycle may be over. He predicts "6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action," further dampening hopes for an immediate recovery.

Technical analysis from AlphaBTC also suggests deeper losses, with Bitcoin's bear flag indicating a 28% drop from current levels. If BTC breaks below $83,700, the pattern's downside target sits at approximately $60,000.

AlphaBTC warns that losing the $83,630 support level would confirm further weakness, potentially leading to a drop toward $75,000 before testing the lower range.

Bitcoin remains under significant bearish pressure as key technical indicators and market sentiment point toward further declines. With multiple analysts warning of potential drops to the $65,000-$74,000 range—and some even suggesting a move toward $60,000—traders are closely watching support levels. Unless Bitcoin can break decisively above $90,000, the risk of a prolonged correction remains high.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of March 22, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $84,339. The short-term outlook is weak, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $92,600, indicating downside risk. In the medium term, Bitcoin has broken below a rising trend, with support at $70,000 and resistance at $92,000, suggesting neutral momentum. The long-term trend remains bullish, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000, pointing to continued upside potential.

Expected Trading Ranges:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $92,600

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin faces bearish pressure, struggling below $87,470 resistance. A bear flag pattern signals a possible drop to $65,000–$74,000, with $83,700 as key support. The Bull Score Index at 20 suggests weak sentiment, and CryptoQuant’s CEO warns of prolonged bearish action. A break below $83,700 could trigger a fall to $60,000.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen a decrease:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has generally decreased, falling from 43.78 ETH on March 16 to 42.42 ETH on March 22, marking an overall 3.11% decline. Despite a brief gain on March 20 (0.99%) and March 21 (0.55%), the trend remained downward, with notable losses on March 18 (-1.48%) and March 19 (-1.83%). This suggests that Bitcoin has been losing strength against Ethereum over the past week.

“There is a limit: 21 million! Plus we're not selling! so the incremental cost will zoom up as sovereign buyers hit bitcoins inelastic supply, and accelerate the supply shock.”

Financial News

Bitcoin may face increased selling pressure as key indicators flash caution. The Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 0.6, its highest in over a year, signaling large holders moving BTC to exchanges—a bearish trend. Bitcoin’s Options market shows a 30% spike in put demand, indicating growing fear of downside risks.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates and looming U.S. stablecoin regulations add further uncertainty. With these three major red flags in play, Bitcoin’s price could face heightened volatility, making the market structure vulnerable to deeper corrections in the near term.

MicroStrategy announced a $500 million preferred stock offering to acquire more Bitcoin. The company will issue 5 million shares of its new Series A perpetual preferred stock (STRF), featuring a 10% annual cash dividend. Despite this, MicroStrategy’s stock fell 5% amid market turbulence.

The firm’s Bitcoin holdings now total 499,226 BTC, reinforcing its ongoing accumulation strategy. Led by Michael Saylor, the company remains committed to expanding its BTC reserves despite market fluctuations, positioning itself as a major institutional Bitcoin holder. The move underscores its long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Bitcoin continues to lead major global assets, outperforming equities, treasuries, and precious metals despite its recent market pullback. BTC remains 23% below its all-time high of $109,000, recorded on Jan. 20. Analysts suggest this retracement to $76,000 is a correction within a broader bull market.

Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $274 million in net inflows on March 17, signaling renewed investor confidence. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen predicts BTC will not fall below $70K and could rally to $200K within 1-2 years. Industry forecasts range from $160K to $180K for 2025.

The White House revealed Trump’s administration is considering using U.S. gold reserves to buy Bitcoin. Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Act proposes acquiring 1 million BTC over five years. Trump reaffirmed his commitment to making the U.S. a "Bitcoin superpower," boosting market confidence.

Bitcoin remains stagnant at $85,000 due to macroeconomic factors, but analysts predict strong support at $75,000 and a potential rise above $125,000 in 2025. As institutional and nation-state adoption grows, Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance could drive significant market shifts, reshaping the financial landscape and fueling Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory.

Bitcoin's market capitalization has surged to $1.7 trillion, now representing 1.3% of the global money supply, which stands at $128 trillion. Analysts believe Bitcoin is still in its early adoption phase, with significant growth potential. Currently, 84% of the global money supply consists of fiat currency, while gold accounts for 15%.

This underscores Bitcoin’s growing influence in the financial landscape. With increasing institutional interest and a maturing market, bullish sentiment continues to build around Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, reinforcing its role as a viable asset class amid the evolving global economic system.

Adoption News

Xapo Bank has introduced a Bitcoin-backed lending product, enabling select customers to borrow up to $1 million without selling their BTC. With a conservative 20%-40% loan-to-value ratio, the loans provide a cushion against forced liquidation. Repayment terms range from 30 days to a year, with no early penalties.

Unlike past failed lenders, Xapo ensures customer BTC isn’t rehypothecated. Available in Europe and Asia but not the U.S., the service is designed for long-term holders seeking liquidity for major expenses while retaining Bitcoin exposure. The launch signals growing institutional interest in Bitcoin-backed financial services.

Brazil is considering a new bill that would allow workers to receive up to 50% of their salary in Bitcoin, with the rest in Brazilian reais. Proposed by federal deputy Luiz Philippe of Orleans e Bragança, the law aims to modernize the financial system and attract investment.

Employers must provide exchange rate transparency and educate workers on risks. Foreign workers and contractors may receive full Bitcoin salaries. If passed, Brazil will join countries like Japan and Switzerland in permitting Bitcoin wage payments. The bill is under review and requires approval from Congress and the president to become law.

Minnesota state Senator Jeremy Miller has introduced the Minnesota Bitcoin Act, allowing the state to invest in Bitcoin and enabling residents to use BTC for tax payments. Initially skeptical, Miller became a believer after research and constituent feedback.

The bill would let state employees add Bitcoin to retirement accounts and exempt BTC investment gains from state income taxes. Minnesota joins 23 states exploring Bitcoin reserves, following a broader trend in U.S. crypto adoption. The move aligns with federal efforts like Senator Cynthia Lummis' BITCOIN Act, pushing for government Bitcoin holdings.

The Bank of Korea has stated it has not reviewed or discussed holding Bitcoin as part of its foreign exchange reserves, citing high volatility and liquidity concerns. Responding to inquiries from lawmakers, the central bank emphasized the need for a “cautious approach” and noted that Bitcoin lacks investment-grade credit ratings.

This stance comes amid global discussions on Bitcoin’s role in national reserves, following the U.S. executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Meanwhile, South Korea’s regulators are assessing Japan’s approach to crypto ETFs as part of broader financial policy considerations.

Eric Trump has been appointed to Metaplanet’s newly formed Strategic Advisory Board, reinforcing the Trump family’s growing involvement in crypto. His role will focus on advancing Bitcoin adoption and strengthening Metaplanet’s position as a leading Bitcoin Treasury Company.

The appointment aligns with Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, signaling deeper institutional engagement with Bitcoin. Metaplanet aims to leverage Eric Trump’s business expertise to expand its influence in the crypto sector, positioning itself as a key player in institutional Bitcoin management.

Mining News

Hive Digital is strengthening its Bitcoin treasury strategy, using market downturns to expand mining capacity while minimizing reliance on debt or equity dilution. CFO Darcy Daubaras emphasized retaining mined Bitcoin for long-term value appreciation rather than aggressive selling.

Hive recently increased its BTC holdings to 2,805 BTC and selectively sells assets for strategic investments. To navigate industry challenges, the company has diversified into AI data centers and renewable energy, aligning with a broader trend among miners shifting toward alternative revenue streams to counter rising operational costs and post-halving profitability pressures.

The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance clarified that proof-of-work (PoW) mining does not constitute securities dealing under the Securities Act of 1933 when conducted on permissionless networks. This applies to Bitcoin and other PoW chains like Litecoin and Dogecoin.

The clarification aligns with regulators' long-standing view that Bitcoin is a commodity, not a security. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing pro-crypto policies, with plans to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler and introduce comprehensive stablecoin and market structure bills, signaling potential regulatory shifts favoring digital assets.

Pakistan is positioning itself as a regional crypto hub by leveraging its excess electricity for Bitcoin mining. The government plans to introduce market-based electricity tariffs for crypto miners without subsidies, reducing payments to power producers for unused energy.

Federal Energy Minister Awais Leghari met with the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) to discuss attracting global miners. Meanwhile, the PCC is developing a regulatory framework to foster blockchain adoption. This move aligns with global trends, with Russia legalizing mining, the U.S. expanding operations, and speculation about China revisiting its mining ban.

Bernstein lowered 2025 price targets for Bitcoin miners IREN, CleanSpark, and Riot, citing underperformance as miners fell 20-40% YTD versus Bitcoin’s 10% drop. Institutional investors are prioritizing AI over Bitcoin mining. IREN’s target dropped to $20, CleanSpark’s to $20, and Riot’s to $19.

Meanwhile, Bernstein maintained its $200K Bitcoin target and raised Coinbase’s price target to $310, highlighting its growth potential despite competition. Robinhood remains strong with an expanding product pipeline. Coinbase’s dominance in U.S. trading positions it to benefit from regulatory clarity and market growth, despite investor concerns over rising competition in the crypto sector.

Arkansas Bitcoin miners filed a lawsuit accusing the state of discriminating against Chinese-owned operations. A 2024 law prohibits ownership by entities from "countries of particular concern," effectively banning Chinese investors. The lawsuit argues the law is unconstitutional and racially discriminatory. Washington is increasingly pushing to expel foreign-owned crypto miners, citing national security risks.

Local opposition to Bitcoin mining is growing due to noise and energy concerns. Two Chinese-American-owned mining firms, Jones Eagle and NewRays One, are directly affected. The case highlights broader tensions between the U.S. and China over crypto and national security regulations.

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